Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

From Anthropic Economic Research

[Key findings]

• We introduce a new measure of AI displacement risk, observed exposure, that combines theoretical LLM capability and real-world usage data, weighting automated (rather than augmentative) and work-related uses more heavily

• AI is far from reaching its theoretical capability: actual coverage remains a fraction of what's feasible

• Occupations with higher observed exposure are projected by the BLS to grow less through 2034

• Workers in the most exposed professions are more likely to be older, female, more educated, and higher-paid

• We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations

Read the Full Article: https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts